Daily Nifty & Bank Nifty
Market Analysis

By Shashi Maini | CM Financials

Moving Ideas Forward — Monday, 13 July 2026

Indian equity markets head into the new trading week with a broadly constructive setup, though last week's sharp volatility is a reminder that traders should stay nimble. Here's a detailed breakdown of what to watch before the opening bell on Monday.

Global Cues: Firm Start Expected

GIFT Nifty is signalling a positive opening for domestic equities, trading nearly 0.55% higher heading into Monday's session. The contract closed Friday's floor session at 24,234.50 — up close to 296 points (1.24%) from its previous close of 23,938.50. European markets added to the constructive mood, with the FTSE 100, DAX and CAC 40 all edging higher, a backdrop that could lend support to export-oriented and financial stocks at home.

That said, the setup isn't without risk. Renewed geopolitical tension in the Middle East remains the wildcard — any fresh escalation, a sudden spike in crude oil prices, or unexpected developments out of Washington could quickly turn sentiment on its head before the market even opens.

Nifty 50: Recovering From a Volatile Week

Nifty closed the week ended 10 July at 24,207, down a marginal 0.26%, snapping a four-week winning streak. But the headline number hides a genuinely turbulent week — a 200-DMA breakout on Monday was followed by the sharpest single-session fall in over three months on Wednesday, a partial recovery on Thursday, and a TCS-led rebound to close out Friday.

The Wednesday sell-off was driven by renewed US-Iran tensions after fresh strikes and retaliatory attacks ended a fragile ceasefire, sending Brent crude above $78.8/bbl and India VIX jumping to 14.68. On the flip side, TCS delivered a strong Q1 FY27 print — profit up 4.6% YoY, revenue up 13.9% YoY, along with a ₹12 interim dividend — sparking a 4% rally in the stock and lifting the broader IT pack heading into the earnings season.

Institutional flows offered reassurance through the volatility. FIIs kept their Wednesday selling limited to just ₹532.86 crore, suggesting the dip was treated as a buying opportunity rather than a reason to exit. DIIs, meanwhile, stayed net buyers across four sessions, led by a strong ₹3,791.42 crore inflow on Monday.

A sustained close above 24,500 could open the door to the next leg toward 24,800–25,000 on Nifty. The 200-DMA, now near 24,131, has flipped from resistance to support after Monday's breakout — holding above this zone will be key to keeping the bullish structure intact.

Bank Nifty: Buy-on-Dips Bias Intact

Banking stocks are carrying a cautiously constructive undertone into the new week. HDFC Bank's 15.4% YoY loan growth — its strongest in five quarters — was a major driver of last Monday's rally, with Axis Bank and Bajaj Finance also posting healthy business updates. Kotak Mahindra Bank was the relative laggard, weighed down by softer deposit growth and a declining CASA ratio.

As long as Bank Nifty holds above the 57,400 support band, the broader buy-on-dips structure should remain in play. A decisive, sustained break above 58,400–58,500 would be needed to trigger fresh momentum buying toward the 58,800–59,300 zone.

The Bottom Line

Monday's setup looks constructive on paper — a positive GIFT Nifty, supportive global cues, and strong DII buying underpinning the market. But last week's whiplash between a 200-DMA breakout and the sharpest single-day fall in three months is a good reminder that geopolitical headlines, particularly around crude oil, can move fast. Traders should watch the first 15–30 minutes of trade closely to confirm whether the gap-up sustains before committing to directional positions.